How To Invest In A Great Bear

Well, this is the post that I wrote on Friday, but didn't publish, because I hadn't time to finish it before my flight to Ireland...

"If I had invested all my money from my first novel, Juno & Juliet, in the main Irish stock index, the ISEQ General Index, back in late 2000/ early 2001 when I sold the book to the UK and US, I would now, after eight years fully invested, be down anywhere between 30% and 50%, depending on which months I'd put the money in. If I'd invested all the installments of my advances as soon as I'd got them (on signature, delivery and publication), it'd probably average out at a 40% loss, after eight years. So I'm glad I didn't listen to my Allied Irish Bank adviser. He also wanted me to plunge into tech stocks. I was a naive innocent in financial matters back then, compared to now, but I wasn't retarded. "Er, why would I invest in what is clearly a bubble at what is probably the peak?" I asked him. (I think the bubble popped about a month later). He made some noises with his mouth, ("Ah, well, er... you...um"),  but he didn't actually answer. Putting my money into the Nasdaq would have lost me up to 55%. Again, averaged out, probably a loss to date of roughly 40 to 45 %.

What did I do with my advance? I spent it on food and books and chocolate. And bought a couple of nice paintings, which I still have and which make me very happy. And lived in London for six months, and the US for a few months, and had many romantic dinners with my beloved.

However, if I had any money now, I think some value is at last, for the first time in my investing life, beginning to surface"

...Well, that's where the post ended, no full stop because I hadn't finished it. Really REALLY wish I'd posted it anyway, given that on the fecking Monday we had the biggest ever one-day points rise in the US stock indices, and quite a few others world wide.

Not that a one-day rise means anything (or a one-day fall, for that matter), but it would have made me look fierce cute for a few hours.

No, I'm not calling the bottom of the market, this market is now too nutty to call. I'm just pointing out that some stocks (and some municipal bonds, some corporate bonds, and a few other things) are now at good prices for a brave longterm investor. But the wild ride in the markets will continue for quite a while yet.

I'm typing this in Tipperary on a very slow machine, so I can't be arsed putting in all the links and a photo. I'm not even going to spellcheck it. Normal highly erratic service will be resumed from Berlin shortly...