Julian Gough

At last, it's election day in the USA. Who will win? Well, I think Obama won the election six weeks ago, on Monday 15th of September 2008 when Lehman Brothers , the hundred-and-fifty-year-old American investment bank, collapsed and filed for bankruptcy protection. (And, somewhat addicted to the high-wire of public prediction by now, I'm typing this before the votes have been counted. I haven't even looked at an exit poll, if any are out yet. There's hours of voting left to go in parts of the US.) That was the event that made the collapse of not just banks but the whole deregulated financial system unstoppable.

Check out the graphs in the second half of this excellent video from John Authers of the Financial Times. (You can skip the stuff on the dollar at the start.) In the crucial states Obama needs, Obama trailed McCain until the day of the Lehman's collapse, and then bam, his line shoots up and McCain's plummets, and McCain has trailed Obama in all of them ever since.

Almost everything written about this election has been fluff. The economy will always drive politics in a democracy. Only when things are going fairly well will people bother to vote on any other issue. When the economy implodes, so do the hopes of the incumbent party. McCain actually ran a very good campaign under incredibly difficult circumstances: he stayed in the race until the entire American banking system collapsed. His problem was that he had to run as two mutually conflicting things. To get the Republican party to vote for him, campaign for him, and finance him, he needed to run as a Republican. But that's only 40% of the voters. Not enough. And President Bush was so unpopular (this week he recorded a 20% approval rating, the lowest in history, lower than Nixon in the last days of Watergate), that to win the votes of anyone else at all, McCain had to run as a crazy maverick who wasn't anything like Bush and, sure, was hardly a Republican at all, at all. And you can't be both King of the Republicans, and the Scourge of the Republicans. (Look what happened to the last guy who tried to walk that tricky line.)

It has been very refreshing to have two presidential candidates that I really like and respect running for the big gig. (I wasn't impressed by the character of either candidate the last time.) It has been sad to see McCain ripped in two by the situation he put himself in. Much of the anger he expressed in that last month was probably at himself. I think he will be very glad indeed when this is over.

Obama had the easier task but, even allowing for that, he has run a stunningly good campaign. I think he'll walk this election. On water if necessary. He's not trying to win the popular vote (fat lot of good winning that did Al Gore), he's aiming to sweep the Electoral College. I think he will.

OK, that's who will win (oh, and one last prediction... Obama will do well among white voters, getting a bigger share of them than Bill Clinton got, and all that talk about the Bradley effect will turn out to have been fluff too). But who should win? I don't think novelists should have opinions, especially political opinions. It damages their work, by ruling out certain readings, and closing down ambiguities that should not be closed down. I do have private opinions and preferences, but they are private. And my books do not necessarily share my opinions. So I shall outsource my opinion to someone much older and wiser than me, the very wonderful Alan Abelson, of Barron's (Wall Street's favourite newspaper): "This election pits one candidate who should have been elected eight years ago against one who should be elected eight years hence."

There you go. Fair and balanced.

May the best man win.

Though personally, as a satirist, I would like to get in early, and officially endorse Sarah Palin's 2012 bid for the presidency. She has given so much to us, we have a duty to give something back.

I know, I know, you've already watched it fifteen times, but indulge yourself one last time...

And, above all, on this day of all days, it is your political duty, if you haven't done so already, to click on this link, and then click on everything you see when you get there, with the sound on.

Update on Wednesday, November 5, 2008 at 04:37AM by Julian Gough

The super-duper New York Times interactive map is addictive and delightful. I've been enjoying making my own calls on the states, ahead of the networks and newspapers, by zooming in and trying to work out, county by county, how the tide is flowing. I'll make a call here, for the fun of it: I think Obama will just pip McCain in Indiana. As I type, McCain is only .2% ahead, and there's still a lot of votes to come from Lake County, which contains the city of Gary, which is breaking 2 to 1 for Obama. McCain is winning in the rural counties, but they have largely been counted by now.

 

And now I'm off to bed, it's nearly 5am in Berlin.

Update on Wednesday, November 5, 2008 at 05:20AM by Julian Gough

Nah, I couldn't go to bed, it's too exciting... Florida looks like a big win for Obama. He's 2% ahead of McCain as I type, but McCain's counties are counted, the big blocks of votes still to come in are all Miami-Dade, Palm Beach and Broward counties, (so, urban - Miami, Fort Lauderdale - and Democrat), and they are going to swing it strongly to Obama.

 

I really should go to bed, this election is over. Ah, it's a great shame McCain was robbed of the Republican nomination by the Rove/Bush machine in 2000. That really bent American democracy out of shape. And what consequences...

 

But in 2008, Obama deserves his victory. Here's the bravest and most important speech of the campaign, from either candidate. Character is destiny, and Obama has character.

Update on Wednesday, November 5, 2008 at 05:41AM by Julian Gough

Yes, it's officially over. The networks have called it, and after the Kerry/Bush debacle, they ain't going to be leaping to wild conclusions. Wow. President Obama.

 

I'm incredibly happy. What a great day for America. What a relief for the world. (What was the global opinion poll result again? 75% of those with an opinion were for Obama?) The number of wounds that this helps to heal... holy cow.